I mistimed my run today. The day was clear. I checked the forecast, picked a window to fit my diary and went out in the clothes I would wear for dry conditions. No waterproofs. Then the gusts pushed a band of rain across the route, and I spent the run soaked at five or six degrees.

This is day 2128 of my daily run streak. I have covered 16,354.93km so far, which leaves 23,720.07km of the 40,075km I need for a lap of the world. I run barefoot-style, every day, to raise £1M for children's causes. After this many consecutive days, I have been caught out by weather many times. Today was another reminder to plan better and accept what I cannot control.

Some days you get caught out and there is no answer

I will say this first. Sometimes you plan well and the weather changes anyway. Short-notice rain on a gusty day is hard to predict. When this happens, you finish the run and learn from it. Beating yourself up gains nothing.

Most of the time, though, I can improve my odds. I treat it as marginal gains. A few minutes of checking before I leave makes the run less unpleasant, and the unpleasant runs are the ones that threaten a streak.

Wind speed and wind gusts are different numbers

Wind is the weather factor I pay most attention to. A forecast gives two numbers, and many runners are unsure which to follow.

Wind speed is the steady, average figure. Gusts are the short bursts above this average. I am no weatherman, but my own rule is simple. Under about five miles per hour, I ignore the wind. In double figures, I plan around it. Gusty days like today are harder to read, because the average looks manageable while the bursts hit hard.

A headwind costs more effort than most people expect. In my experience, running into a strong one can feel two or three times harder over the same stretch of route. I can handle rain and I can handle cold. A strong headwind I could have avoided is the one I resent.

A southerly wind blows from the south

This one catches a lot of people, and it caught me years ago. A forecast says southerly wind. My instinct says the wind is travelling south. It is the opposite. A southerly wind comes from the south and blows towards the north.

Get this wrong and you plan for a tailwind and meet a headwind. The easy fix is to stop reading the label and look at a wind map. I use Windy, on the free version. It shows arrows across a map. Longer, thicker arrows mean stronger wind. I lay my planned route over the map and see which sections face into the wind.

Choose the route for the wind

Most of my runs start and finish at the same place. That leaves two options, a loop or an out and back.

A loop turns through every direction of the compass. On a windy day, this guarantees a headwind at some point. An out and back lets me choose one straight line. If I point the line so the wind crosses my body, I get a sideways wind both ways. Today I ran an out and back for this reason. When I turned to face the wind, my microphone picked up the noise straight away. Side-on, the noise dropped. I am slim, which helps, because there is less of me for the wind to push against.

If a loop is the only option, put the headwind section where there is shelter. Buildings in an urban area, or trees and woodland on a trail, make a large difference.

Ice is the other danger

Wind and ice are the two weather conditions I rate as most dangerous to a runner. Heat is serious too, but it asks you to listen to your body and hydrate.

For ice, check the actual temperature. At or below freezing, expect ice on smooth paths and pavements. In this case, I move to an off-road route. Frozen mud is hard, but its rough surface gives grip where a paved path would not. Above freezing, ice should not affect the route.

Dress for the feels like temperature

The last check is the feels like temperature. Wind, rain, snow and fog all change how cold the air feels on your body. A reading that looks mild on paper might feel five, six or ten degrees colder with wind in the mix. I dress for the feels like number. Today I dressed for a dry, mild run, and got the opposite.

What this has to do with the mission

The streak depends on small decisions made before I leave the house. A run is rarely lost on the road. It is lost when the conditions make me avoid it. Choosing the route, checking the wind and dressing properly all reduce the chance of a missed day.

At 16,354.93km, the remaining 23,720.07km will not be covered by intensity. It will be covered by consistency, one day at a time, in every kind of weather. I am building towards a 16.5-year streak, and a run in poor conditions still counts the same as a run in perfect ones.

Every run is also part of the fundraiser. Each vlog is filmed so more people see the mission, and more attention means more money raised for children's causes. That is the reason I go out when it rains.

If you run outside regularly, try this before your next run. Check wind speed and gusts, check the direction on a wind map, pick an out and back if it is windy, and dress for the feels like temperature. If you have a method of your own, leave a comment. I read them and reply to the useful ones. If you want to support the mission, subscribe and follow the daily vlog. I will be out again tomorrow.

Watch the full episode: https://youtu.be/9KXSnKyJ3d0